Chartered Financial Consultant
Note: My commentaries are written about a week before you receive them because I need to receive compliance approval first. Feel free to contact me at work (916-444-2233) or on my cell phone (916-267-5112).
I’m writing this six days before the Presidential election. If all goes well, you should receive this by Election Day. What follows are my predictions about the election results, then what I expect to happen in the economy once the new government is in charge.
President: Joe Biden will win the election handily with 320-330 electoral votes. The popular vote margin for Biden will be five to ten million votes. Unless the Congressional Republican leaders actively support a peaceful transition of power, the period between November 3, 2020 and January 20, 2021, could be very challenging and perhaps frightening. After Inauguration Day, Donald Trump will leave the White House and spend many years being a defendant and living with the legacy he created as the Worst American President in History.
Senate: I think the Democrats will lose the Democratic Alabama seat, but will pick up seats in Colorado, Maine, Arizona, and possibly North Carolina and Iowa. That would give Democrats a 52-48 advantage.
House of Representatives: Democrats will still have a comfortable margin. House seats don’t change often and incumbents rarely lose. The 2022 election could alter things considerably because reapportionment will redraw legislative districts on the federal and state level. What happens this year in the state legislative races could be significant impact on who redraws those lines.
With a Democratic President, Senate and House of Representatives government priorities and principles will change. Government ethics and competence will certainly improve with a new administration.
Obviously, COVID-19 will be the biggest issue. Taking a mature approach to this terrible pandemic will be good for our collective health, the economy and the country’s spirit. This could be a long process, especially if there is grassroots resistance to following the advice of Dr. Fauci and the epidemiologists.
Whether or not the pandemic winds down quickly or lingers, I believe that government will try to stimulate the economy in a variety of ways: health care, alternative energy, environmental protection and infrastructure. This will be good for the economy, unemployment and the stock market, just as when President Obama took over during the heart of the Great Recession of 2007-2009.
As I always caution, the stock market does its own thing, that’s why I’m not making short-term predictions about the market, but historically, going back for decades, the stock market trends upward over the long-term.
So by the time you receive this, the election might be close or over. Hopefully, hopefully, we are weeks away from the end of the disastrous, divisive presidency of Donald Trump. It makes me feel like crying with hope just to think of that day.