Commentaries

Note: This commentary has been delayed because I need to receive compliance approval before I can send it. I will send my stock market/economy/whatever thoughts more frequently during the next few months. I apologize for the use of so many words in “quotation marks”.
Feel free to contact me on my cell phone (916-267-5112) to me.

I woke up at 4:30 AM and couldn’t get back to sleep. I kept trying to figure “things” out. After a while I convinced myself that this “thing” can’t be figured out. It is something that has to be waited out. Luckily, I fell back to sleep.

It is our nature to try and fix things. If we can’t fix something we need to adapt to that new reality. We need to anticipate what it will be like when, (hopefully not if) things get better.

So, how will things be different in a month or three months or two years? Let’s just say it is three months until things start to get normal again? What will have changed?

It appears that many people will die, too many to imagine. Hopefully it will be fewer than what is projected if our “shelter in place” strategy is successful. This is a health crisis first and an economic crisis second. Until it is safe to resume our “normal” lives, the economy will not improve. As a reminder, the economy and the stock market are not the same thing.

Financially, nearly everyone, with the possible exception of Jeff Bezos, will have less money. It appears that the bill that is about to come out of Congress will send money to everyone, possibly including Mr. Bezos.

So what does this mean three months (optimistically) from now? How many restaurants, retail stores and service companies will never re-open? How many employees will not get their old jobs back? How will the massive bailout bill with its staggering debt impact the ability of the federal government to provide the services it provides today? A Recession seems likely.

As the stock market gyrates wildly it generates hope one day and fear the next. At some point the market will find a “bottom” as the experts say. One expert quoted another expert saying, “The cure for low stock prices is “lower” stock prices. The stock market is about companies. Most companies, big and small, are being damaged by this. Some firms will become stronger and more creative. Some will help lead us out of this dark economic time. Stock portfolios will be reshuffled and at some point stability will return. This is a crazy time and there is no way to know what the future holds.

Final Thought: We are all being financially damaged, some much more than others. Hopefully this will unite our deeply divided population and change our national priorities. If we all receive checks, it will be a time to decide if we need this money—or should we pass this along to family members or friends in desperate need or social organizations whose work we support. Let’s give that some thought.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo recently urged Americans to stay “socially distanced, but spiritually connected.”

Please stay safe and healthy.

Bob

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