Donald Trump’s Stock Market Delusions

February 19, 2019
By Bob Dreizler

I just finished listening to President Trump’s rambling and slightly crazed comments that preceded his declaration of a NATIONAL EMERGENCY. Before getting to the poorly-delivered punch line, he reminded us of his many “accomplishments.”

One of these concerned his presidency’s positive impact on the economy and the stock market. In case you only watch Faux News, it might be helpful to compare recent stock market performance to that of his predecessor, Barrack Obama, who Trump said, ruined the economy and stock market.

Here are Standard and Poor’s 500 Index annual performance figures from https://ycharts.com/. It should be noted that the S+P 500 Index, which you cannot invest in directly, is made up of the largest 500 American companies. S+P is not the same thing as “the stock market,” but it is a pretty good proxy. Also, the President has some control over the direction of the market (positively or negatively), but there are many other contributing factors. That’s why few (possibly no) Presidents ever took credit for what is happening on Wall Street.

2017 (Trump’s first year in office): +22%
2009 (Obama’s first year in office): +26%
2016 (Obama’s last year in office): +12%
2008 (Bush II’s last year in office): -37%
2010 (Obama’s second year in office): +15%
2018 (Trump’s second year in office): -4%

The number of years during President Obama’s two terms when the S+P had a negative return: ZERO. The average during these eight years was +15%.

Sorry, I’ve got to go now to stock up on canned beets to prepare for our NATIONAL EMERGENCY.